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☆ Europe is beating inflation. Why can’t America declare victory?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, ”, MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, “, ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, —, ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Slowing growth plus stubborn inflation add up to a headache for Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The slowing growth and stubborn inflation picture emerging in the U.S. economy may not be quite a nightmare scenario for the Federal Reserve, but it at least could make for some restless sleep. Markets had been looking for the string of good readings dating back to mid-2022 to continue, with economists estimating real GDP growth of 2.4% and inflation readings around 3%. What it got was essentially what some on Wall Street called the worst of both worlds, with weakening growth and stubborn price pressures. The Fed will get a more granular look at PCE data on Friday when the Commerce Department releases the monthly figures for March. "We still think Fed cuts are coming this summer, before inflation has sustainably slowed."

Persons: Matthew Ryan, —, Ryan, Steven Blitz, Veronica Clark Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce, Treasury, Commerce Department, TS Lombard, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S

☆ Expect more global growth and bottoming in China, says Skylar Montgomery Konig
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect more global growth and bottoming in China, says Skylar Montgomery KonigSkylar Montgomery Konig, Director of Macro Strategy at TS Lombard, discusses earnings, market concentration, and economic growth.

Persons: Skylar Montgomery Konig Skylar Montgomery Konig Organizations: TS Lombard Locations: China

☆ Don't sweat the prospect of no Fed rate cuts, economist says — markets will still march higher
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the bank's William McChesney Martin building on March 20, 2024 in Washington, DC. His comments come as investors await the release of further U.S. economic data and closely monitor clues from Fed officials about the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2024. Asked on Thursday about the likelihood of one or no Fed interest rate cuts this year, Blitz said that it's "getting pretty good. Blitz said markets will likely continue to march higher, even if the Fed decides not to impose any interest rate cuts this year — a prospect that U.S. asset manager Vanguard named as their base-case scenario. Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, March 22, 2024.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Chip Somodevilla, Steven Blitz, Blitz, They're, CNBC's, it's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Raphael Bostic, Jerome, Powell Organizations: Bank, Getty, Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Traders, Fed, Vanguard, Economic, of New, Atlanta Federal Reserve, US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: Washington ,, U.S, of New York, Atlanta, Washington , DC

☆ TS Lombard: Russian presidential election is a 'plebiscite' on Putin's leadership
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTS Lombard: Russian presidential election is a 'plebiscite' on Putin's leadershipChristopher Granville, managing director, global political research, at GlobalData TS Lombard, says "the turnout will be the key test for legitimacy."

Persons: Christopher Granville Organizations: GlobalData

☆ This week provided a reminder that inflation isn't going away anytime soon
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

From consumer and wholesale prices to longer-term public expectations, reports this week served up multiple reminders this week that inflation isn't going away anytime soon. Data across the board showed pressures increasing at a faster-than-expected pace, causing concern that inflation could be more durable than policymakers had anticipated. The bad news began Monday when a New York Federal Reserve survey showed the consumer expectations over the longer term had accelerated in February. It continued Tuesday with news that consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago, and then culminated Thursday with a release indicating that pipeline pressures at the wholesale level also are heating up. The latest jolt on inflation came Thursday when the Labor Department reported that the producer price index, a forward-looking measure of pipeline inflation at the wholesale level, showed a 0.6% increase in February.

Persons: Steven Blitz, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Labor Department, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics

☆ Ukraine's losses on the battlefield could make the war more dangerous for Russia
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesEarly on in the war with Russia, Ukraine's successes on the battlefield prompted warnings from defense analysts that Moscow — with its back against the wall militarily — could lash out, using a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil. Defense analysts noted that the more successes Ukraine saw, the more dangerous and unpredictable its opponent Russia could become as it sought to regain the initiative. That, in turn, would make the war much harder and more dangerous for Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual state of the nation address, on February 29, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization.

Persons: Oleksandr Syrskyi, —, Ignacio Marin, Christopher Granville, Alexander Ermochenko, Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Brigade, Anadolu, Getty, Moscow, Defense, Analysts, Global Political Research, TS Lombard, Service, Reuters, Ukrainian, NATO, West, Russian Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian, Avdiivka, Donetsk, Moscow, Russian, Volnovakha, U.S, Canada, Paris

☆ China's economy looks like a mess — but some sectors are quietly doing well in its '2-speed economy'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Meanwhile, its financial markets are bleeding, the property market has gone up in smoke, local government debt appears alarming, and foreign investors are exiting in droves. Real estate — which was a huge part of China's economy — has been hit badly, he said. AdvertisementTravel has picked up after years of pandemic lockdownServices is another pillar of China's economy that Beijing has been trying to build up. AdvertisementThis is in part because new growth industries are not able to take the place of real estate — yet. Because the property market accounts for one-quarter of China's GDP and more than two-thirds of household wealth, its overall drag on China's economy is much greater than whatever is doing well right now.

Persons: —, Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, AllianceBernstein, John Lin, Lin, Donald Trump's, Louise Loo, Wood Mackenzie, AllianceBerstein's Lin, Nomura, Loo Organizations: Service, Business, Bloomberg TV, Oxford Economics, Nomura, Oxford Locations: China, GlobalData.TS, Real, COVID, Beijing, Europe, Taiwan, South Korea

☆ China is heading for a 'lost decade' if it doesn't reform and grow, an analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China risks a "lost decade" of slow growth if it doesn't reform its economy, warns an economist. AdvertisementChina faces a "lost decade" of sluggish economic growth much like Japan if it doesn't reform its economy, according to an economist. "China could certainly have a lost decade of growth," Rory Green, the chief China economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard, wrote in a note on Thursday. Leaders are attempting to create a new political-economic model, one less reliant on debt-fueled property-led growth," wrote Green. Meanwhile, technocrats in China generally believe China needs to reform and grow — or risk a Japan-style lost decade, Green added.

Persons: Beijing's, —, Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, Xi Jinping, Green Organizations: Service, cri sis Locations: China, Japan, GlobalData.TS, Beijing, technocrats

WASHINGTON (AP) — From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers. Why, with inflation nearly conquered and interest rates at a 22-year high, isn't now the time to cut? High rates could also compound the struggles of banks that are saddled with bad commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates. “We need the government to address the interest rates ... and understand that they’ve accomplished their goal of lowering inflation," Kelleher said. If so, that might not just delay the Fed's rate cuts, but result in fewer of them.

Persons: isn't, ”, Steven Blitz, “ They’re, ” Loretta Mester, Mester, “, David Kelleher's Chrysler, Kelleher, ” Kelleher, Powell, ” Powell, we’re, Andrea Kugler, Eric Swanson Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, GlobalData, Lombard, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Jeep, Fed, University of California Locations: Wall, Philadelphia, Irvine

☆ Bad news, Beijing: Real-estate booms like the one in China nearly always end with a major banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

China's trying to manage its property crisis so the sector's troubles don't spill over. However, history shows that credit-fueled real-estate booms nearly always end with a major banking crisis, said an analyst. Real estate was a key driver of China's economy that has been struggling to recover post-pandemic. AdvertisementChina's trying to manage its real-estate crisis so that its troubles don't spill over to the rest of the economy, which has been struggling to recover post-pandemic. "History shows that credit-fuelled real-estate booms do not end in a whimper; rather, they end with a bang — and nearly always with a major banking crisis," wrote Andrew Lawrence, the head of Asia property at GlobalData.TS Lombard, in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: —, Andrew Lawrence Organizations: Service Locations: Asia, GlobalData.TS

For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

☆ Analysis: Traders bet ECB will be first big central bank to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. With investors confident that big central banks are likely done raising rates, focus has switched to when rate cuts will start. Traders now price in over an 80% chance of a 25 basis-points (bps) ECB cut by April, which had been fully priced for July last week. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said the expectations for ECB rate cuts now reflected a "doom and gloom" scenario. He added the ECB would need to cut rates at least as much as traders expect next year.

Persons: Heiko Becker, BoE, Shamik Dhar, Christine Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Lagarde, Goldman, Gurpreet Gill, Dario Perkins, Yoruk, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Emelia Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Traders, ECB, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BNY Mellon Investment, Treasury, Reuters, Danske Bank, Asset Management, Lombard, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, U.S, Britain, Israel

☆ Europe is at an impasse over fiscal reform — and Italy's bond market may have the most to lose
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The 27 member states of the EU have been at odds over new debt rules for several months. "Higher perceived risk of a return to old, stringent fiscal rules forcing a faster deficit reduction would worsen medium-term growth expectations for the EU, weighing on the euro. The old rulesEuropean member states have had to comply with fiscal rules that require they respect a 60% debt-to-GDP threshold and a public deficit of 3%. In 2020, the fiscal rulebook was frozen so member states could deviate from their fiscal targets and spend on pandemic-related matters, such as protecting jobs. And with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the fiscal rules were kept on hold because governments were faced with new energy costs and inflationary pressures.

Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Antonio Masiello, Davide Oneglia, Oneglia, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Italian, Getty, European Union, Lombard, Goldman, European Commission Locations: Italy, Ukraine

☆ Globalisation woes create new winners and losers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Over the past seven decades, the world economy has grown 14-fold, powered by a 45-fold expansion in global trade, according to the World Trade Organization. World trade as a percentage of GDP peaked at 61% in 2008. The first is rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. The retrenchment is probably going to be gradual: global trade was still worth 57% of world GDP last year. For 2024, the WTO said growth in goods trade would pick up to 3.3%, virtually unchanged from its April estimate of 3.2%.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping “, ”, Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, Michele Ruta, Ursula von der Leyen, it’s, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Dario Perkins, GlobalData’s Perkins, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Warehouse Union, REUTERS, Reuters, World Trade Organization, Economic, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HK, Amperex Technology, European Central Bank, GlobalData, Lombard, Companies, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ECB, Thomson Locations: Vancouver , British Columbia, Canada, Netherlands, United States, China, Beijing, Washington, U.S, Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam, People’s Republic, Latin America, Chile, Brazil, Ukraine, Geneva

☆ Breakingviews: Globalization woes create new winners and losers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Describing that anticipated outcome while keeping open the possibility of future rate increases will be one challenge Powell faces. Another will be discounting speculation about the prospect of rate cuts or changes to other aspects of Fed policy, such as the ongoing reduction of the central bank's balance sheet. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is just about six-tenths of a percentage point below the Fed's policy rate; when the gap between the two shifts from negative to positive is when monetary policy gets perhaps its truest test. Recent data on balance don't fully back the Fed's view of a gently slowing economy and steadily easing inflation. "Assuming the economy keeps growing ... the Fed will get back to hiking," Blitz said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Larry Meyer, Meyer, Krishna Guha, Powell's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S ., Economic, of New, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Evercore ISI, Hamas, U.S . House, Graphics, TS Lombard, Thomson Locations: U.S . Congress, of New York, Israel, Palestinian, Washington, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation reports take center stage
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In this article JPMCWFCGOOGL Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTA pedestrian passes a Wall Street subway station near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Monday, June 27, 2022. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. This pushed U.S. markets lower, renewing fears of what lies next for the Federal Reserve, which has stuck to its goal of 2% inflation. Investors may now want to take a deep breath to brace themselves before the barrage of earnings reports take markets by storm.

Persons: Michael Nagle, Steven Blitz, Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, GlobalData, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells, Bank Locations: New York, U.S

☆ Getting to 2% inflation won't be easy. This is what will need to happen, and it might not be pretty
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Mike Blake | ReutersIn theory, getting inflation closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target doesn't sound terribly difficult. The main culprits are related to services and shelter costs, with many of the other components showing noticeable signs of easing. watch nowInstead, getting better control of rents, medical care services and the like could take ... well, you might not want to know. Policymakers have been banking on the notion that when existing rental leases expire, they will be renegotiated at lower prices, bringing down shelter inflation. He added that the CPI report "is a reminder that we do not have good historic examples to lean on" for long-term patterns in rent inflation.

Persons: Mike Blake, Steven Blitz, Goldman Sachs, Lisa Sturtevant, Christopher Bruen, Marta Norton, Stephen Juneau, Juneau Organizations: Reuters, GlobalData, Street, Cleveland Fed, Bright MLS, Housing, Americas, Morningstar Wealth, Bank of America Locations: Rancho, San Diego , California, Maryland, Stephen Juneau , U.S

☆ Bond yields could hit 6% as the Fed is going to keep hiking rates until something breaks, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Key bond yields are likely headed to 6% as the Fed will keep hiking interest rates, TS Lombard said. That's due to recent robust economic data, which could influence the Fed to take interest rates higher. Higher rates risk sparking a recession, especially considering interest rates are already higher than Fed officials think, Blitz said. Markets have panicked in recent weeks as investors try to adjust to a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury just rose to their highest level since 2007, briefly touching 4.8% on Friday.

Persons: Lombard, —, Steven Blitz Organizations: stoke, Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Lombard, Investors, —

A steepening yield curve is when the spread between long- and short-term bond yields widens. Either the long-term yield rises faster than the short-term yield - a bear steepener - or the short-term yield is falling more - a bull steepener. Bear steepenings of the benchmark two-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, when the curve is inverted, are rare. In some ways, a positive-sloping yield curve is the natural order of things. Graff reckons the bear steepening is almost over and the curve will struggle to get past -20 bps.

Persons: Warren Pies, Dario Perkins, Lombard's Perkins, Bond, Bill Gross, Goldman Sachs, Tom Graff, Graff, Jamie McGeever, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, 3Fourteen Research, TS Lombard, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, London reckons

☆ China won't end up like Japan - but it's headed for a 'grinding deceleration' with a narrow path to avoid stagnation, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China has only a narrow path to avoid economic stagnation, according to TS Lombard. Stimulus from the government can offset weak investment and low consumption, but only partially. "We define Sinification as a grinding deceleration in activity led by falling property investment and weak consumption," he later added. That's well-below the double-digit growth rate China has seen for much of the past 20 years -- but still better than the 1% growth rate Japan saw in the 90s. AdvertisementAdvertisementOther forecasters have cast similar warnings over China's economy, seeing only slim chances the nation can avoid a difficult economic slowdown.

Persons: —, Rory Green, Green, That's, Morgan Stanley Organizations: TS Lombard, Service, United Locations: China, Japan's, United Nations, Japan

☆ A U.S. government shutdown will be marginally negative on the economy, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA U.S. government shutdown will be marginally negative on the economy, says economistSteven Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the impact of a potential government shutdown on the U.S. economy that is "teetering towards recession."

Persons: Steven Blitz Organizations: TS Lombard Locations: U.S

☆ We've upgraded China stocks, TS Lombard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe've upgraded China stocks, TS Lombard economist saysRory Green, chief China economist and head of Asia research at TS Lombard, discusses the Chinese property market, stimulus measures and the outlook for stocks.

Persons: Rory Green Organizations: We've, TS Lombard Locations: China, Asia

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMonth-to-month inflation numbers "will inevitably hop around," wrote Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson, who sees underlying consumer inflation nevertheless slowing to a "benign" level of below 3% by early next year. Since their meeting in July, only two Fed policymakers have said they felt rates do not need to rise further, while others noted their outlook for slowing inflation was built around a slightly higher federal funds rate. Overall bank credit has been falling on a year-over-year basis since mid-July, evidence of financial firms tightening access either through higher rates or stricter standards. By and large Fed officials feel the economy can grow about 1.8% a year with inflation at the 2% target and assuming "appropriate monetary policy." The outlook has diminished prospects for a U.S. recession, but may well keep Fed concerns about high - or higher - inflation alive.

Persons: Jessica Rinaldi, Ian Shepherdson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Torsten Slok, Goldman Sachs, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Apollo Global Management, Lombard Chief U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: Flushing , New York, U.S

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